Best Actor in a Supporting Role: My gut tells me this one goes to Daniel Kauuya for a towering performance. But, his screen partner is nominated as well, and the surprising widespread love for Sound of Metal tells me this category might be up for grabs, so I’m picking Raci for his phenomenal empathy. It’s as authentic as the fraudulent act of putting on a show gets.

The Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Will Win: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

Could Win: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Should Win: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

Deserved Consideration: Brian Dennehy (Driveways), David Strathairn (Nomadland), Toby Wallace (Babyteeth),

Best Animated Feature Film: Wolfwalkers might be the better film, but Soul streamed everywhere. Everyone saw it and it was very good. That’s all that really matters.

The Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers

Will Win: Soul

Could Win: Wolfwalkers

Should Win: Soul

Deserved Consideration: Trolls: World Tour

Best Animated Short Film:

The Nominees: Burrow, Genuis Loci, If Anything Happens I Love You, Opera, Yes-People

Will Win: Burrow

Could Win: If Anything Happens I Love You

Should Win: Burrow

Best Original Screenplay: Honestly, I’m really just hoping for anything besides The Trial of the Chicago 7 in this category. And I have a feeling this is where Promising Young Woman is awarded for being so polarizing.

The Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will Win: Promising Young Woman

Could Win: Minari

Should Win: Sound of Metal

Deserved Consideration: She Dies Tomorrow, Swallow, The Vast of Night

Best Adapted Screenplay: It’s a really weak category this year, which means I’m taking the obvious route and choosing the most likely Best Picture winner.

The Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger

Will Win: Nomadland

Could Win: The Father

Should Win: Nomadland

Deserved Consideration: i’m thinking of ending things, Bad Education

Best Live-Action Short Film:

The Nominees: Feeling Through, The Letter Room, The Present, Two Distant Strangers, White Eye

Will Win: Two Distant Strangers

Could Win: Feeling Through

Should Win: Two Distant Stangers

Best Production Design: Mank has a ton of nominations, and although it’s far from beloved, I think it’s liked by enough to win a few technical awards. This seems like the easiest one to chalk up as a victory.

The Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet

Will Win: Mank

Could Win: The Father

Should Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Deserved Consideration: i’m thinking of ending things

Best Costume Design: If you’ve seen the films, just close your eyes and try to exercise some recall. Yeah, it’s Ma.

The Nominees: Emma., Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mulan, Pinnochio

Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Could Win: Emma.

Should Win: Emma.

Deserved Consideration: One Night in Miam, i’m thinking of ending things

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