Best Actor in a Supporting Role: The Oscars love a comeback story, and I’m not sure there’s one more indicative of the Academy’s push for more racial inclusion than Ke Huy Quan. He left an industry that seemed to forget his talent, only to return and win the ultimate prize for his role as a doting family man. It’s not my favorite performance of the bunch – that would go to Gleeson’s tortured portrayal of a man who feels life passing him by – but it’s well deserved either way.

The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Bnashees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Should Win: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Deserved Consideration: Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Brad Pitt (Babylon)

Best Animated Feature Film: I have yet to see The Sea Beast, and while this category is loaded, it seems to be the charming Guillermo del Toro’s to lose. I personally would love to see the joyous and deeply human Marcel the Shell with Shoes On win, and either of the others would be worthy as well. This was a strong year for animation.

The Nominees: Guillermo del Tor’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red

Will Win: Guillermo del Tor’s Pinocchio

Should Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Best Animated Short Film: I dunno, I just think it’d be funny to hear the presenters say My Year of Dicks.

The Nominees: The Boy the Mole the Fox and the Horse, The Flying Sailor, Ice Merchants, My Year of Dicks, An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Will Win: My Year of Dicks

Best Original Screenplay: As a two horse race between McDonagh and the Daniels, I’m leaning towards the film most likely to take home the most awards, as well as the biggest prize of the night. It’s a shame that The Fabelmans has seemingly been forgotten, because this is the film that Spielberg – one of cinema’s Mt. Rushmore directors – has been building towards his entire career.

The Nominees: Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner (The Fabelmans), Todd Field (Tár), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)

Will Win: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Should Win: Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner (The Fabelmans)

Deserved Consideration: Damien Chazelle (Babylon), Jordan Peele (Nope), Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Voters seem to more easily champion scripts that are dialogue heavy, and Women Talking is basically that just by the title alone. Polley has been consistently winning on the awards circuit thus far and given the competition here, I don’t see that changing.

The Nominees: Edward Berger, L. Paterson and Ian Stokell (All Quiet on the Western Front), Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Kazuo Ishiguro (Living), Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie and Eric Warren Singer (Top Gun: Maverick), Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

Will Win: Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

Should Win: Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

Deserved Consideration: David Kajganich (Bones and All), Kogonada (After Yang)

Best Live-Action Short Film: Haven’t seen any of these, let alone heard of most of them before just now. But I love a quality quick exit and remember reading good things about An Irish Goodbye, so we’ll see how that logic turns out.

The Nominees: An Irish Goodbye, Ivalu, Le Pupille, Night Ride, The Red Suitcase

Will Win: An Irish Goodbye

Best Production Design: This one could easily go to Elvis, especially with how bizarrely divisive Babylon turned out to be, but there’s a scale and a buzzing energy to Babylon that simply cannot be ignored. The sets aren’t just backdrops; they’re full blown characters taking part in the frivolity and madness.

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans

Will Win: Babylon

Should Win: Babylon

Deserved Consideration: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Nope, The Woman King

Best Costume Design: Again, I think Babylon has a shot here. But Elvis has 8 total nominations and it’s bound to take a few home, so I’ll give it the slight nod for recreating an icon’s wardrobe with detail and precision. Having said that, don’t be surprised by a Black Panther: Wakanda Forever win either.

The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Will Win: Elvis

Should Win: Babylon

Deserved Consideration: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Woman King

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