Best Makeup and Hairstyling: I would not be the least bit surprised if Poor Things wins this category, if only because it received so many nominations yet seems unlikely to win very many of them. But Maestro is up for Best Picture, and despite the wildly underserving controversy that briefly surrounded it’s choice of prosthetics, I’m not sure anything else I saw this year used makeup as masterfully.

The Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

Will Win: Maestro

Should Win: Maestro

Best International Feature Film: I mean, it’s up for Best Picture. What else do you need to know?

The Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teacher’s Lounge, The Zone of Interest

Will Win: The Zone of Interest

Should Win: The Zone of Interest

Best Original Score: Just like Barbie’s costumes are a character, so is the score to Oppenheimer. It fills the scenes with possibility, dread, hope, disaster. A film this visual cannot be as grand with a score such as this.

The Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Song: I don’t really care for the slow and monotonous “What Was I Made For?”, but it’s going to win because the rest of the category is so weak. It’s still puzzling to me that Barbie’s true best song – Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night” – didn’t get nominated here.

The Nominees: “What Was I Made For?”, Billie Eilish and Finneas, Barbie / “I’m Just Ken,” Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Barbie / “The Fire Inside,” Diane Warren, Flamin’ Hot / “It Never Went Away,” Jon Batiste, American Symphony / Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Osage Tribal Singers, Killers of the Flower Moon

Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”, Billie Eilish and Finneas, Barbie

Should Win: “I’m Just Ken,” Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Barbie

Best Director: Christopher Nolan is one of the best filmmakers of the modern era, and he’ll finally get his much deserved first academy award for this masterful achievement. It’s an absolutely stacked category, but expect the humble Nolan to graciously receive his these long overdue flowers.

The Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Will Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Should Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Best Actor in a Leading Role: I loved Cooper in Maestro, but this race is between Giamatti and Murphy. The former has picked up a few wins in the award’s circuit, yet the latter has largely been unheralded throughout his career, and this opportunity as a leading man in a billion dollar blockbuster is a stunning showcase of his talent. Giamatti might win, but he already has an Oscar at home, and I think that might sway things in favor towards Murphy.

The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Will Win: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Should Win: Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

Deserved Consideration:

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Just like the best actor category, this duel is between Gladstone and Stone. And similarly, since Stone is already a winner and already so accomplished, it makes my prediction lean more towards Gladstone. She’s genuinely fantastic here, and like Murphy, seems to be getting the kind of acclaim that should have come years ago.

The Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Will Win: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Should Win: Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Best Picture: Like Oppenheimer, the final award of the night is inevitable. Christopher Nolan’s film will win unless there’s some sort of seismic shift in the world of Oscar voting. And since I don’t see that happening, I’ll take this final opportunity to recommend my favorite picture of the year, Celine Song’s debut Past Lives. It’s as devastating as an atomic bomb.

The Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Past Lives