Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Both supporting categories seem to be completely sealed up, and you can expect Robert Downey Jr. to take home the statue for his cold, calculated performance in the night’s biggest winner of all. It’s a side of Downey that we haven’t seen in years, and his closest competition should be Ruffalo’s wild performance in another heavily nominated film.

The Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

Should Win: Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Best Animated Feature Film: I wouldn’t be surprised if Spider-Verse wins here; it has the name recognition, is universally liked, and its predecessor won as well. But I have a sneaky feeling that Miyazaki’s latest has picked up enough steam to hear its name called. Either way, it comes down to one of those two.

The Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Will Win: The Boy and the Heron

Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Animated Short Film: Sometimes people tend to vote solely based on name recognition alone, and because I haven’t seen any of these, my guess is that trend will work in favor of the John & Yoko inspired short.

The Nominees: Letter to a Pig, Ninety-Five Senses, Our Uniform, Pachyderme, War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Best Original Screenplay: Another two horse race, best original screenplay will depend on the sentimentality of the academy. If they prefer something darker in texture, the winner will be Anatomy of a Fall. But if they err more towards a film that wears its heart on its sleeve, The Holdovers will take the cake. Both are nominated for Best Picture, so you can safely bet on either to be called on stage.

The Nominees: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari (Anatomy of a Fall), David Hemingson (The Holdovers), Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer (Maestro), Samy Burch (May December), Celine Song (Past Lives)

Will Win: David Hemingson (The Holdovers)

Should Win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari (Anatomy of a Fall)

Best Adapted Screenplay: All indicators point to American Fiction being the winner; after all, voters love a story that’s about a writer. It’ll be a deserving winner, although I’d personally opt for the shrewd and sharp writing in The Zone of Interest, quite possibly one of that intentional films of the year.

The Nominees: Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach (Barbie), Tony McNamara (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Will Win: Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)

Should Win: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Best Live-Action Short Film: I’ve never fancied anything made by Wes Anderson, but he has the name recognition and the availability of this short on Netflix to boost his chances, so I’d be surprised if this Roald Dahl adaptation didn’t win the category.

The Nominees: The After, Invincible, Knight of Fortune, Red White and Blue, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Best Production Design: Production Design and Costume come down to Poor Things and Barbie, and I’m not sure how things will shake out. But if I had to choose, I’d say Poor Things has the upper hand, and will likely at least take this category. When you close your eyes, you can envision the warped and surreal world building of the massive sets throughout.

The Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Will Win: Poor Things

Should Win: Barbie

Deserved Consideration:

Best Costume Design: Similar to the production design, I’d bet Barbie has a leg up here because the costumes are so integral to the character development, with clothes that span decades and are more than just pieces of fabric; they are practically a character in their own right. Barbie isn’t Barbie without the right outfit.

The Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Will Win: Barbie

Should Win: Poor Things

Deserved Consideration:

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